Interpreting real estate market trends can be challenging, especially when media commentary is often reactionary and inconsistent.

Short-term data fluctuations are frequently misrepresented, creating confusion among homebuyers, investors, and lenders alike.

The most misleading aspect of property market commentary is the overemphasis on short-term price data.

Real estate is a long-term asset class, and month-to-month changes in median house prices offer little meaningful insight.

Despite this, some commentators hastily declare market downturns based on one or two months of moderate figures, often leading to sensationalised headlines.

A recent press release from a data provider in early March proclaimed: “Housing Downturn Reverses in February!”

This raises the question—was there ever a genuine downturn? A minor softening over two months, followed by a modest 0.3% increase, hardly constitutes a significant market shift.

From a lending perspective, quarterly data provides a more reliable indicator of market trends.

The latest figures show that Perth’s property boom has peaked, with house prices stabilising. Meanwhile, Adelaide, Darwin, and Brisbane recorded the strongest growth among capital cities, while regional Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia led in quarterly price gains.

Sydney and Melbourne experienced a slight decline of around 1% over the quarter, with small increases in February.

However, it remains too early to determine whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery. For mortgage lenders and borrowers, a measured, data-driven approach is essential.

Short-term price movements should not dictate lending or borrowing decisions. Instead, focusing on broader trends, economic fundamentals, and long-term growth prospects will provide a clearer picture of the housing market’s trajectory.